The housing recovery showed particular weakness in the New Homes Sales category last month -- good news for homebuyers around the country.
A "new home" is a home for which there's no previous owner.
New Home Sales fell 11 percent from the month prior and posted the fewest units sold in a month since 1963 -- the year the government first started tracking New Home Sales data.
Right now, there are roughly 234,000 new homes for sale nationwide and, at the current sales pace, it would take 9.1 months to sell them all. This is nearly 2 months longer than at October 2009's pace.
The reasons for the spike in supply are varied:
Now, these might be less-than-optimal developments for the economy as a whole, but for buyers of new homes, it's a welcome turn of events. Home prices are based on supply and demand, after all.
As a result, this season's home buyers may be treated to "free" upgrades from home builders, plus seller concessions and lower sales prices overall.
It's all a matter of timing, of course. New Home Sales reports on a 1-month lag so it's not necessarily reflective of the current, post-Super Bowl home buying season. And from market to market, sales activity varies.
That said, mortgage rates remain low, home prices are steady, and the federal tax credit gives two more months to go under contract. It's a favorable time to buy a new home.
Using data compiled in December, Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday. The report shows home prices down just 2.5% on an annual basis, a figure much lower than the 8.7% annual drop reported after Q3.
According to Case-Shiller representatives, the housing market is "in better shape than it was this time last year", but some of the summer's momentum has been lost. 15 of 20 tracked markets declined in value between November and December 2009.
Meanwhile, it's interesting to note the 5 markets that didn't decline -- Detroit, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego. Each of these metro regions were among the hardest hit nationwide when home prices first broke. Now, they're leading the pack in price recovery.
For some real estate investors, that's a positive signal. But we also have to consider the Case-Shiller Index's flaws because they're big ones.
As examples:
That said, the Case-Shiller Index is still important. As the most widely-used private sector housing index, Case-Shiller helps to identify broader housing trends and many people believe housing is a key element in the economic recovery.
If the markets that led the housing decline will lead the housing resurgence, December's data shows that full recovery is right around the corner.
You can't get your mortgage rates from the newspaper. Last week proved it. Again.
Friday morning, headlines and around the country read that mortgage rates were down 0.04 percent, on average, since the week prior.
A sampling of said headlines includes:
The story behind the headline was sourced from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, am industry-wide mortgage rate poll of more than 100 lenders. The PMMS has reported mortgage rate data to markets since 1971 and is the largest of its kind.
Unfortunately, rate shoppers can't rely on it.
See, unlike governments and private-sector firms, when consumers are in need mortgage rate information, they need the information delivered in real-time; for making decisions on-the-spot. Consumers need to know what rates are doing right now.
The Freddie Mac survey can't offer that.
According to Freddie Mac, the survey's methodology is to collect mortgage rates from lenders between Monday and Wednesday and to publish that data Thursday morning. The survey results are an average of all reported mortgage rates. The problem is that mortgage rates change all day, every day. The PMMS results are skewed, therefore, by methodology.
And, meanwhile, the issue was compounded last week because mortgage rates shot higher Wednesday afternoon -- after the survey had "closed". The market deterioration ran into Thursday, too -- again, unable to be captured by Freddie Mac's PMMS.
Although the newspapers reported mortgage rates down last week, they weren't. Conforming mortgage rates were higher by at least 1/8 percent, or roughly $11 per $100,000 borrowed per month. In some cases, rates were up by even more.
Newspapers and websites can give a lot of good information, but pricing is far too fluid to rely on a reporter. When you need to know what mortgage rates are doing in real-time, make sure you're talking to a loan officer. Otherwise, you may just be getting yesterday's news.
The mortgage lending landscape changes a lot. Rates and guidelines are in constant flux, and it creates preparedness challenges for buyers that aren't paying in cash.
The loan you get today won't always be the loan you get tomorrow.
Because of how frequently bank rules are changing, it can be hard for laypersons to distinguish between mortgage fact and fiction of "what's coming next".
Recently, we saw this with respect to FHA home loans.
January 20, 2010, the FHA issued a press release with new lending guidelines. Specifically, it announced 3 changes that will be effective starting April 5, 2010:
But, also in its official statement, the FHA announced it would ask Congress for permission to raise monthly mortgage insurance premiums. This is where the rumors started.
Nestled on page 348 of the Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2011, in a section titled Special Topics, there is a 1-paragraph notation that details the FHA's petition.
For now, the request is neither approved nor acknowledged by Congress. It's merely a request. And in the event that Congress does approves it, that doesn't mean that FHA has to stand by its initial projections.
Truth is, about the only thing we know about the future of FHA lending is that, come April 5, 2010, borrowing money is going to be tougher, and mortgage expensive. These are the facts as we know them today.
Homebuyers should plan accordingly.
Securing an FHA mortgage is about to get more expensive.
In a statement issued Wednesday, the Federal Housing Authority outlined policy changes to its mortgage assistance program. The shift is meant to both reduce the government group's portfolio risk while strengthening its overall financials.
For consumers, the changes mean higher costs.
As listed in the official announcement, there are 3 major guideline updates for the FHA:
Furthermore, the FHA has appealed to Congress to raise an FHA borrowers' monthly mortgage insurance premiums.
To read the FHA's statement, it's clear what the group is trying to balance. On one side, the FHA wants to provide affordable financing to families that need it. That's its mission statement. On the other side, though, the FHA must manage the risk that comes with insuring lesser-quality loans.
To that end, the FHA is stepping up its enforcement of "bad lenders" in hopes of stopping problems where they start.
Also in its new policies, the FHA is introducing a "termination clause". If banks or loan officers that produce more than their fair share of bad loans, they lose their right to originate FHA mortgages.
As a result, homebuyers should expect tougher FHA underwriting in 2010. Not because the FHA says so, necessarily, but because banks don't want to do "bad loans". Lenders are incented to turn down at-risk applicants and, already, we're seeing examples of this. Despite FHA allowing 580 FICOs and lower, many banks have made 620 their minimum.
Some have other guideline overlays, too.
The FHA's new guidelines don't go into effect until spring. So, between now and then, the old guidelines will apply. Therefore, if you know you're going to need an FHA home loan in the next few months, consider moving up your time-frame.
If nothing else, you'll save some money at closing.
November 6, 2009, Congress voted to extend and expand the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit program. There's 100 days left to claim it.
The expiration date of the up-to-$8,000 tax credit has been pushed forward to spring, requiring homebuyers to be under contract for a home no later than April 30, 2010, and to be closed no later than June 30, 2010.
In addition, "move-up" buyers were also added to the program's eligibility list meaning you don't have to be a first-time home buyer to be eligible for the tax credit. If you've lived in your home for 5 of the last 8 years, you meet the IRS requirements.
Move-up buyers are capped at a total tax credit of $6,500.
The tax credit's basic eligibility requirements remain the same:
The new law includes some notable updates, however.
First, the subject property's sales price may not exceed $800,000. Homes sold for more than $800,000 are ineligible. And, also, household income thresholds have been raised to $125,000 for single-filers and $225,500 for joint-filers.
And lastly, don't forget that the program is a true tax credit -- not a deduction. This means that a tax filer who's eligible for the full $8,00 credit and whose "normal" tax liability totals $5,000 would receive a $3,000 refund from the U.S. Treasury at tax time.
The complete list of qualifying criteria is posted on the IRS website. Review it with a tax professional to determine your eligibility. Then mark your calendar for April 30, 2010.
There's just 100 days to go.
Mortgage pricing worsened Monday, driving mortgage rates to their highest levels since October.
The day's action was drastic, too.
Some banks issued as many as 3 rate sheets Monday -- each worse than the preceding and one reason why rates got so bad, so quickly, is because this week marks the beginning of mini-Vacation Season on Wall Street.
Between now and January 4, 2010, be prepared for big swings in pricing from day-to-day. Shopping for a mortgage could be a challenge.
The relationship between vacation days and mortgage rate volatility is rooted in how mortgage rates are "made".
So, during vacation week, when the total number of market participants are less, there are fewer opportunities for buyers and sellers to meet at a specific price. As a result, bond prices rise and fall with a higher velocity than on a "normal" day. Rallies and momentum plays are exaggerated, too.
Now, mortgage market action like this can work in your favor, or it could work out of your favor. Unfortunately, on Monday, rates moved out of favor.
This rest of this week is stacked with market-moving economic data. The data could be better-than-expected, or worse-than-expected. Either way, markets will react a little more feverishly than normal. Therefore, if you have a chance to lock a favorable rate, consider taking it.
Before long, the rate could be gone.
Fannie Mae raised the bar for mortgage applicants this past weekend. Getting approved for a home loan just got harder.
In its official announcement, Fannie Mae says the updates minimize long-term lending risks. If that's the case, this won't be the last guideline change Fannie Mae makes -- especially with loans defaulting at an above-normal clip.
The immediate changes are major. The first pertains to credit scores.
Effective December 13, 2009, the bulk of Fannie Mae's loans require a 620 credit score minimum. There are very few exceptions.
A second relates to loans with private mortgage insurance.
Homeowners whose loan-to-value exceeds 80 percent now have a choice:
Both options result in higher consumer loan costs.
A third change concerns maximum debt-to-income ratio. Fannie Mae will no longer approve loans with debt ratios exceeding 45 percent except with very strong assets and very high credit scores.
In no case whatsoever may debt-to-income exceed 50 percent.
There are other changes, too, including the elimination of seldom-used mortgage products and additional risk-based fees for "expanded level" mortgage approvals. These updates affect just a small part of the population.
So, home prices are rebounding, mortgage rates are low, and -- for 5 more months at least -- there's a federal tax credit for qualified buyers. You don't have to buy a home now, but with mortgage guidelines sure to tighten in 2010, now may be a better time than later.
The best "deal" won't matter if you can't get qualified on your mortgage.
The average family spends $2,200 per year in electric bills and the average home is responsible for twice the amount of greenhouse gases than the average automobile.
Whether you want to save money or save the environment, this 5-minute piece from the NBC Today Show is for you. In it, you'll learn that just by being aware of your energy consumption, you can reduce it by up to 15 percent.
The piece centers on a device called a Power Monitor which retails from $30 to $100, depending on the model. It measures the actual cost of using an appliance, or using a light, or charging a laptop, or any other household energy use.
Among the cost findings:
Obviously, turning off lights when rooms aren't in use saves money, too.
By making small changes -- most of which aren't inconvenient -- the average family can drop its energy bill by hundreds of dollars each year.
For many American homeowners, interest paid on a mortgage is tax-deductible in the year in which it was paid.
Knowing that, eligible homeowners can increase their 2009 tax deductions just by making their January 2010 mortgage payment before the end of the year.
By paying in 2009, the mortgage interest paid can be applied against 2009's itemized tax deductions even though the payment isn't technically due until 2010.
It can reduce your tax burden come Thursday, April 15, 2010.
And lest you think you're paying the mortgage "in advance", remember that mortgage interest is paid in arrears; a payment due January 1 accounts for interest that accumulated in December 2009 anyway.
Tax planning is a complicated issue and not all homeowners qualify for mortgage interest tax deductions. Check with your tax professional before making tax planning decisions.
If you don't have an accountant you trust, call or email me anytime; I'm happy to make a recommendation to you.
This morning's jobs report is causing mortgage rates to rise, capping a week during which rates have already jumped 3/8 percent off all-time lows.
The government's November Non-Farm Payrolls report reinforced the notion that the recession is nearly over, if not over already.
Just 11,000 jobs were lost last month -- much fewer than analysts had expected -- as the Unemployment Rate fell to 10.0%.
If it seems strange to be talking economic recovery while Americans are still losing jobs -- 7.2 million since 2008 -- remember that data always needs context.
See, analysts view employment figures as a lagging indicator for the economy. This is because business owners tend to make hiring decisions based on how business has been -- not on how it will be at some point in the future.
The jobs report rarely reflects the "right now". As an example, job loss peaked in January 2009 -- 4 months after the height of the financial crisis.
We saw the same pattern during the Recession of 2001.
According to government data, during the last recession, job loss peaked in October 2001 but the recession ended the very next month. It wasn't until October 2002 that employment went net positive on a monthly basis.
And this is why investors are cheering November's jobs report. Better-than-expected numbers and a falling Unemployment Rate show that the economy is improving.
Unfortunately for rate shoppers, better-than-expected data is pushing mortgage rates higher. Rates are expected to open 0.250% higher versus yesterday's close.
'Tis the season to do shopping -- and get bombarded with offers to open credit cards.
The deals are tempting, too. "Open a charge card today" and save up to 20% on your purchase. Considering that the average Black Friday ticket was $343, that's $68 saved per store.
For big-ticket items like televisions, the savings are even bigger.
But for people in the market for a new home -- or looking to refinance -- taking advantage of in-store savings could be a long-term money loser.
Every time you apply for a credit card, your credit score drops.
According to myFICO.com, "new credit" accounts for 85 out of 850 possible credit scoring points. New credit is defined by such traits as:
Shoppers with few open credit cards are more likely to see their scores drop that shoppers with many cards.
Regardless, a credit score is worth protecting because of how mortgage rates are made. A conventional mortgage applicant with 20% equity whose FICO is 720-739 will be subject to a 0.125% loan fee that a comparable applicant at 740 would not have to pay.
Having a low credit score can be expensive.
It is okay to take advantage of in-store savings during the holiday shopping season, but it's also important to be aware of how your credit score may be affected.
If you're not applying for a mortgage in the next six months, you'll likely be alright. But, on the other hand, if you know you'll need your FICO soon, consider whether saving 15 percent on a $343 ticket is worth the long-term cost of a higher mortgage rate.
When a home seller accepts a contract on an MLS-listed property, the property's status changes from "Active" to "Pending".
This means the home is scheduled to sell, but not yet sold.
Each month, the National Association of Realtors® tallies the number of pending homes and publishes the data as the Pending Homes Sales Index report.
In October, for the 9th straight month, the index gained. It's the longest such streak in Pending Home Sales history.
Because a "pending" home sale is just a contract between buyer and seller, it's not as important to the economy as actual home sales. However, the Pending Home Sales Index can be a fine predictor of future activity.
Historically, 80 percent of homes under contract "close" within 60 days, and most others close within 120 days. Recent Existing Home Sales data corroborates this. Home sales activity is at its highest pace in nearly 3 years.
The Pending Home Sales Index does have some shortcomings, though:
Despite this, however, Pending Home Sales is a terrific measure of real estate market strength. Homes are going under contract at a dizzying pace. It's thinning out home inventory supplies and pressuring prices to rise.
This chain reaction is what makes Pending Home Sales Index worth tracking. As the number of homes under contract increase, home prices can't be far behind.
Home affordability improved this week after the Federal Reserve released its November 3-4, 2009 meeting minutes.
The FOMC Minutes is a companion to the Federal Reserve's post-meeting press release. It's released 3 weeks after the Fed adjourns and details the internal debates that shape our nation's monetary policy.
As compared to the press release, the minutes can be rather lengthy. November's press release featured 428 words, the minutes offered 6531.
However, this extra level of detail shapes markets and mortgage rates. With Wall Street unsure about the economy's path, investors look to our nation's central bankers for guidance.
The Fed has made several points clear:
Overall, the FOMC Minutes paint the economy as in a state of measured repair, and under tight federal surveillance. Investors like this message and, as a result, stock and bonds markets are improving.
If you haven't checked mortgage rates lately, make a point to do that. In the wake of the FOMC Minutes, conforming mortgage rates are now hovering near their all-time lows set exactly 1 year ago.
It's official -- home prices are no longer in free fall.
According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the Home Price Index posted its first quarterly increase since 2007 last quarter.
The news was reported Tuesday.
The Home Price Index is an interesting metric. It's huge in its scope, accounting for every home sold in the country that backs a mortgage bound for Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac with two notable exceptions:
Because the Home Price Index makes these specific exclusions, and because it doesn't account for FHA and jumbo mortgages, some analysts discount the HPI's relevance. They prefer the private-sector Case-Shiller Index instead.
Now, to be fair, the Case-Shiller has its own set of flaws, too.
For example, it excludes condos and co-ops, and only tracks sales in 20 cities nationwide. But, of all the private home valuation models, Case-Shiller is the most well-known and most widely-used.
The Case-Schiller Index was also released Tuesday and the report showed the same results as its government-issued counterpart -- home values increased between the second and third quarter.
When the Home Price Index and Case-Shiller Index reach similar conclusions, markets tend to buy-in. Home buyers should, too.
Home values have likely bottomed and are starting to turn higher, as shown in two separate reports. High sales volume and dwindling supply are contributing factors. So are low mortgage rates and a tax credit.
If you're on the fence about buying a home, at least consider your options. In 2010, homes are unlikely to be as cheap to buy, or as cheap to finance.
An Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee - Equal Housing Lender
Contact Us | What is CMPS®? | Testimonials | Best Time to Buy | Home | Loan Application | Loan Application Info | Mortgage Calculators | Customer Login | 9 Steps to Ownership | How to Sell Your Home | Home Price Index | Jim's Daily Blog | Win $1000 | Chicago Experts
Copyright © 2010 Chicago BancorpPortions Copyright © 2010 a la mode, inc.Another XSite by a la mode, inc. | Admin Login| Terms of Use| Site Map
