Mortgage markets worsened last week on a mixed bag of economic data. Inflation data came in soft, but so did the start of the holiday shopping season.
For the first time in a month, mortgage rates worsened last week, adding roughly 0.125 percent on conforming fixed-rate products, and a little bit more on ARMs.
Despite rates worsening, there was still some good news for home buyers and would-be refinancers. Mortgage rate volatility was markedly lower than in recent weeks. You could shop for mortgage rate last week and actually take your time about it.
This is in stark contrast to the last month or so over which mortgage rates changed every few hours, on average.
This week, though, because a heavy data calendar is combining with a holiday-shortened trading week, rates aren't likely to stay as tame.
Each of these data points are market-movers by themselves. In tandem, however, they could really shake things up. Then, at the tail end of the week, markets will react to Black Friday.
If stores look full Friday and initial receipts appear high, stock markets should rise at the expense of bonds, leading mortgage rates higher.
Additionally, expect that mortgage rate changes will be amplified because of low trading volume. This could work in your favor, or out of your favor -- depending on the market direction.
With mortgage rates at such low levels and unlikely to fall much further, locking a rate is advisable. If you choose to float, though, keep your loan officer on speed dial because when rates do rise, they're going to rise quickly.
Home affordability improved this week after the Federal Reserve released its November 3-4, 2009 meeting minutes.
The FOMC Minutes is a companion to the Federal Reserve's post-meeting press release. It's released 3 weeks after the Fed adjourns and details the internal debates that shape our nation's monetary policy.
As compared to the press release, the minutes can be rather lengthy. November's press release featured 428 words, the minutes offered 6531.
However, this extra level of detail shapes markets and mortgage rates. With Wall Street unsure about the economy's path, investors look to our nation's central bankers for guidance.
The Fed has made several points clear:
Overall, the FOMC Minutes paint the economy as in a state of measured repair, and under tight federal surveillance. Investors like this message and, as a result, stock and bonds markets are improving.
If you haven't checked mortgage rates lately, make a point to do that. In the wake of the FOMC Minutes, conforming mortgage rates are now hovering near their all-time lows set exactly 1 year ago.
It's official -- home prices are no longer in free fall.
According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the Home Price Index posted its first quarterly increase since 2007 last quarter.
The news was reported Tuesday.
The Home Price Index is an interesting metric. It's huge in its scope, accounting for every home sold in the country that backs a mortgage bound for Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac with two notable exceptions:
Because the Home Price Index makes these specific exclusions, and because it doesn't account for FHA and jumbo mortgages, some analysts discount the HPI's relevance. They prefer the private-sector Case-Shiller Index instead.
Now, to be fair, the Case-Shiller has its own set of flaws, too.
For example, it excludes condos and co-ops, and only tracks sales in 20 cities nationwide. But, of all the private home valuation models, Case-Shiller is the most well-known and most widely-used.
The Case-Schiller Index was also released Tuesday and the report showed the same results as its government-issued counterpart -- home values increased between the second and third quarter.
When the Home Price Index and Case-Shiller Index reach similar conclusions, markets tend to buy-in. Home buyers should, too.
Home values have likely bottomed and are starting to turn higher, as shown in two separate reports. High sales volume and dwindling supply are contributing factors. So are low mortgage rates and a tax credit.
If you're on the fence about buying a home, at least consider your options. In 2010, homes are unlikely to be as cheap to buy, or as cheap to finance.
Another month, another piece of evidence that the housing market is in recovery.
Existing Home Sales surged in October as the nation's homebuyers took advantage of low mortgage rates, low list prices, and, for some, a generous tax credit.
Home resales are 23 percent higher versus a year ago and home supply is down to 7 months nationwide.
Inventory hasn't been this low since February 2007.
The news shouldn't be surprising, however. The same real estate trade group that produces the Existing Home Sales report also publishes a monthly report meant to predict future home sales called the Pending Home Sales Index.
Pending Home Sales have been through the roof since mid-May.
So, with pending home sales showing no signs of slowing and 80% of pendings turning into actual, closed sales, we can expect existing home sales volume to rise in the coming months, too. Especially because Congress extended the home buyer tax credit to include (1) "Move-up" buyers and, (2) Buyers with higher household incomes.
It's terrific news for home sellers. The housing market turnaround means higher sale prices and fewer concessions to buyers long-term.
To buyers, on the other hand, the news isn't so good. The window to find a "deal" appears to be closing quickly.
For today's home buyers and homeowners that can manage the higher monthly payments, 15-year fixed rate mortgage rates look attractive as compared to comparable 30-year products.
The 15-year/30-year interest rate spread is near its 5-year high.
Despite lower rates, however, homeowners opting for a 15-year fixed mortgage should be prepared for its higher monthly payments. This is because the principal balance of a 15-year fixed is repaid in half the years as with a standard, 30-year amortizing product.
As compared to 30-year terms, 15-year products repay 3 times as much principal each month.
Versus a 30-year, 15-year fixed mortgages have a few downsides worth noting. The first is that, because 15-year mortgages are heavy on principal and light on interest, homeowners who itemize tax returns may have to claim a smaller mortgage interest tax deduction at tax time.
Another negative is that the sheer size of the payment. If you run into fiscal trouble down the road, the only way to reduce the monthly obligation is to refinance into a 30-year product and that costs money to do.
In other words, be sure you can manage the payments over the long-term before you opt for a 15-year term. If you can manage it, though, the rewards are tangible.
At today's rates, a 15-year fixed and 30-year fixed costs $230 extra per $100,000 borrowed.
A "Housing Start" is a home on which construction has started and, for the 4th straight month, national single-family housing starts held steady last month.
When the demand for homes grows faster than the number of homes for sale, prices increase.
As recent home sales data confirms, buyers currently outpace sellers and one consequence of this is an increase in multiple-offer situations this year.
It's no wonder home prices are up across so many neighborhoods.
October's Housing Starts report is yet another piece of housing data foreshadowing rising home prices into 2010.
Building Permits were also down in October, a potential demand-to-supply imbalance magnifier. Without permits, there's no future construction. This drains supply. Meanwhile, tax breaks and low rates tend to stimulate demand and, right now, we've got both.
Therefore, so long as demand remains semi-constant into the New Year, expect home prices to rise.
In many markets, they already are.
Mortgage markets improved last week as foreign buyers of mortgage debt helped to push mortgage rates to a 4-week low.
It marked the 3rd consecutive week that rates improved, breathing extra life into this year's ongoing Refi Boom.
Fixed-rate, conforming mortgage rates fell about 0.125 percent on the week. ARMs did about the same.
There wasn't much data to move mortgage rates last week; investors worked mostly on momentum and trends. However, the Friday University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey release garnered some attention.
After worsening in August and September, consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month in October. Analysts worry about what it could mean to the economy. Holiday Shopping season is here and consumer spending fuels the economy. If households hold the purse strings tight, our nation's budding economic recovery may stall.
In a scenario like that, employment rates won't rebound so fast, but rate shoppers might not mind. Slower-than-expected economic growth tends to suppress mortgage rates, helping to improve home affordability overall.
This week, data comes back into focus.
At 8:30 AM ET today, the government will release October's Retail Sales report. This one should be closely watched for its ability to change rates. A weak report should drag rates down, and a strong one should push rates up.
Then, on Tuesday and Wednesday, look for PPI and CPI -- two key inflation indices. Inflation causes mortgage rates to rise so if either of these reports comes in hotter-than-expected, rates will almost certainly rise.
And, lastly, also on Wednesday, we'll get the Housing Starts report for October. Don't expect the markets to move on this one, but keep an eye on the data anyway. Housing markets remain crucial to economic recovery.
Despite rates hovering near recent lows, remember that markets change quickly. A rate quote from the morning is rarely valid by the afternoon and, when rates rise, rates rise fast.
Consider this a last call for FHA Streamline Refinances. Starting next Tuesday, the popular rate-lowering program gets strict on borrowers.
There's 5 days left.
Under the current streamline refi guidelines, FHA homeowners have minimal program eligibility requirements.
Beyond that, everything else goes, practically. There's no income, asset, or job verification with the current FHA Streamline program. Neither is there an appraisal requirement. It doesn't matter if you're 50% underwater.
Until next week, that is.
Beginning November 17, FHA Streamline Refinance applicants must show evidence of income and employment, plus proof of cash required to close. Furthermore, the FHA is limited loan-to-values to 97.75% for homeowners that want to "roll closing costs" into their mortgage.
In areas of declining home values, this may render refinancing impossible.
There's more changes, too, as highlighted by the Federal Housing Commissioner. Read up for yourself, or ask a mortgage professional for help.
If you're a homeowner and you're currently financed through the FHA, it may be prudent to explore the possibility of an FHA Streamline Refi. Mortgage rates are low right now and FHA guidelines are loose.
Starting next week, FHA Streamlines will be a completely different beast.
Mortgage markets were extremely volatile last week, carving out a wide range between Monday and Friday.
Thankfully for rate shoppers, the overall momentum was positive.
Mortgage rates fell for the second time in as many weeks. Rates still sit higher versus their early-October lows.
For pure "news", last week was a busy one:
Combined, the 3 events reinforced the growing belief on Wall Street that the U.S. economy is in recovery, but not yet out of the woods. This particular philosophy has been excellent for mortgage rates, helping to hold conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rates near 5.250 percent since the start of the year.
It helped rates last week, too. But low rates aren't without threats.
For one, the Fed's vote to hold the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000 percent will eventually spark inflation concerns. When it does, mortgage rates will rise. That won't be this week, though.
Actually, nothing may happen this week -- there's not much data to release. Apart from a retail report, a confidence survey and some Fed speakers, the calendar is bare. That, and Wednesday is a federal holiday.
However, without data, markets often trade on things like geopolitics, or energy concerns, or momentum. In other words, don't be lulled into thinking rates won't change this week.
At least for now, the mortgage rates look good. By the end of the week, that may not be the case.
The housing market continues to steam forward.
As reported by the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index posted its 8th consecutive monthly gain in September.
It's the longest winning streak in the history of the index and Pending Home Sales are now at their highest levels since December 2006.
A Pending Home Sale is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. It's the precursor to an Existing Home Sale.
Trade group data shows that nearly 80 percent of "pending" homes close within 2 months. The majority of those remaining close within months 3 and 4.
When the Pending Home Sales Index rises, it tells us that market activity has picked up. September's data confirms what we've been noticing since February -- the Buyers Market is ending.
With more homes under contract in the marketplace, homebuyers typically face one or more of the following:
1. Competitive, multiple-offer situations 2. Reduced purchase price leverage over sellers 3. Fewer seller concessions
Therefore, if you're buying a home in the next several months, know that the 8-month run in Pending Sales will lead to a run in closed sales. It should result in higher home prices, too
Indeed, we're already seeing it.
Mortgage markets improved last week after a series of hugely volatile trading sessions.
Rates carved out a wide range on the week, culminating in a late-Friday plunge that dropped rates by about 1/8 percent.
It was the first time in 5 weeks that mortgage rates fell.
Volatility like that of last week is nothing new on Wall Street; it's been a running theme in 2009. Volatility occurs when markets don't agree on what's next for the economy and, this year, there's been a lot of disagreement like that.
Data has been inconsistent. Take last week for example.
At 9:00 AM Tuesday morning, the Case-Shiller Index showed home prices rising nationwide. Because many analysts believe housing fueled the recession, strength in the sector is widely construed a positive for the economy.
Mortgage rates rose on the news.
But then, an hour later, the national consumer confidence report revealed a substantial deterioration in sentiment versus the month prior. The data forced Wall Street to do an about-face.
Housing is important to the economy, but it can't affect growth like consumer spending can. When Americans are less confident about their future income, they tend to keep their wallets closed, retarding economic growth.
Holiday Shopping Season is getting underway and the last thing businesses want to see is a suddenly reserved American shopper.
This week, the volatility should continue.
In addition to the release of key employment and housing data, the Federal Open Market Committee has a scheduled 2-day meeting. The group's Wednesday afternoon adjournment will influence mortgage rates.
The Fed is widely expected to keep the Fed Funds Rate in its target range near 0.000 percent, but it won't be what the Fed does that will matter as much as what the Fed says.
If the FOMC's press release shows optimism for the economy, mortgage rates will rise in response. Alternatively, if the Fed appears more dour, rates will fall.
Either way, consider locking your rate before the Wednesday afternoon announcement.
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