Jim's Daily Blog

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : September 28, 2009

The mortgage market resumed its winning streak last week after a 1-week hiatus.  Markets rallied into the weekend and mortgage rates eased lower overall.

It's the third week out of four that rates improved and, ironically, rates may have dropped last week because traders were watching the wrong metrics. 

With respect to housing, analysts found August's Existing Home Sales and New Homes Sales reports disappointing. 

Both posted weaker-than-expected sales volume, sparking a stock market sell-off that led bond markets higher.

It was the wrong reaction.

Versus home supply, the number of monthly sales isn't nearly as important to the national housing recovery and the supply of homes fell in August.  If Wall Street had been paying better attention, mortgage rates may have risen instead.

The supply of homes for resale fell nearly a month, and of new homes by 0.3 months.

This week will be heavy with data so don't expect rates to stay low for long. 

Early in the week we'll get the Case-Shiller Index, a few consumer confidence surveys, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures report.  Late in the week, it's the September jobs report.

With mortgage rates are trolling near their lowest levels of the quarter, it may be prudent to lock something in to avoid the risk of rates rising.