Jim's Daily Blog

The Long-Term Trendline For Existing Home Sales Points To A Housing Recovery

The housing market continues to surprise.  Last week, the latest good news came in the form of the monthly Existing Home Sales report.

An "existing home" is a home sold by an existing owner as opposed to a developer.  It's non-new construction property.

The data on Existing Home Sales was noteworthy for its trends:

1. Sales volume rose over four straight months for the first time in 5 years
2. Sales volume rose year-to-year for the first time in 4 years
3. Median home prices fell for the first time since April

Furthermore, first-time home buyers and buyers of "distressed" homes accounted for nearly one-third of the market activity each.

But, before we declare a bottom in housing, it's important that we remember the First Rule of Real Estate -- All Real Estate Is Local.

The Existing Home Sales report is not neighborhood-specific.  It lumps cities like San Diego and Saint Paul into a giant sample set and fails to account for regional differences in real estate, let alone neighborhood ones.

This is the primary reason why on-the-ground real estate agents are better sources for a market pulse versus a report from a national trade group.  The national group can't know the happenings of every street and every home in a market.

That said, however, the national data isn't completely useless. 

Looking at the long-term patterns in the Existing Home Sales report, we can infer that ample supplies, low mortgage rates and tax credits are spurring home sales in a lot of U.S. markets.

Eventually, this will lead home prices higher.