Jim's Daily Blog

With The Year Half-Over, How Accurately Did Economists Predict 2009

At the start of the year, the "experts" made a lot of predictions about the U.S. economy and what to expect in 2009. 

• Some said housing would rise
• Some said housing would fall
• Some said mortgage rates would rise
• Some said mortgage rates would fall

And nobody predicted just how big the government's stimulus package would be.

Now, on June 30, with the year officially half-over, it's as good a time as any to remember that people are much better at interpreting the past than predicting the future.  Economists can make educated guesses about the future, but they're guesses nonetheless. 

It's like watching the Weather Channel.  A meterologist can look at the data and say it's going to rain next week, but the forecast is never 100%.

So far this year, mortgage rates have been up and down, credit availability has been higher and lower, and home prices have varied immensely from neighborhood to neighborhood.  These are not the types of predictions we get from the pundits.

There's another 6 months until 2010 and there's no reason to expect the current trends to change. 

The world is unpredictable and so is the U.S. economy.  Therefore, consider making your personal finance decisions based on the information at hand today instead of on an educated guess about the future.

After all, the weatherman's been wrong before.